Links of Interest

On Why we Behave so Strangely in Elevators(I’ve often wondered this myself):

“Passengers seem to know instinctively how to arrange themselves in an elevator… like the dots on a die. With each additional passenger, the bodies shift, slotting into the open spaces. The goal, of course, is to maintain (but not too conspicuously) maximum distance and to counteract unwanted intimacies – a code familiar (to half the population) from the urinal bank and (to them and all the rest) from the subway.”

Nobel prize predictions (via Marginal Revolution).

On the Jack Welch/BLS conspiracy:

a)  Caroline Baum at Bloomberg on Welch now trying his hand at data analysis instead of conspiracy theories (sort of):  ”If you aren’t statistically inclined, try common sense to counter the claims that the data are manipulated. If someone were going to cook the numbers in front of an election, couldn’t he do better than 1.3 percent GDP growth in the second quarter? Just asking.”

b)  Douglas Holtz-Eakin:  ”So, on the whole, September’s report was modestly positive and no cause for either conspiracy theory or celebration. But get ready for more finger-pointing and controversy. In October, the statistical anomalies will likely disappear, the 873,000 jobs will evaporate and the unemployment rate will jump north just prior to the election. Who knew economic data could be so exciting?”

c)  Luigi Zingales at the Library of Economics & Liberty:  ”One does not need to resort to a conspiracy theory to explain the September’s number. Unfortunately, the news is not so good to be unbelievable. Much of the increase in employment came from temporary jobs. The recovery is progressing, but at a very slow pace. This slowness is partially due to the excessive amount of leverage. But it is also due to the increased mistrust in in the system. If we want to restart growing at healthy rates, it is this mistrust we have to cure.”

d)  Menzie Chinn crunches some of the data at EconBrowser:  ”The change [in the unemployment rate series] is not out of the ordinary in terms of the historical record. In fact, the anomalous downward movements were in 2010M12; and in 1983M07. Yet I do not recall hearing any concerns about anomalous movements at those times (I might be wrong about the 1983 observation, which was a long time ago)…The September 2012 movement seems large, but it is well known (at least by those who understand statistical sampling) that the volatility in this series is higher than the others exactly because the household survey sample is relatively small.”

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